The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has warned that Ghana’s continuous decline in crude oil production poses significant risks to the country’s fiscal stability, energy security and long-term economic development.
In a new analysis titled “Ghana’s Crude Oil Production Decline, 2020-2026: A Critical Analysis of Driving Factors, Energy Security Implications and Policy Directions for Reversal,” the IES said the country’s oil output has declined for six consecutive years since reaching a peak in 2019.
The report, authored by Smith Prosper Boahene and Prince Lumor, noted that Ghana’s crude oil production increased significantly following the discovery of the Jubilee Field, with output growth supported by the Tweneboa-Enyenra-Ntomme (TEN) and Sankofa Gye Nyame (SGN) fields.
However, production peaked at 71.44 million barrels in 2019 before declining annually to 37.30 million barrels in 2025, with the Energy Commission forecasting a further drop to 34.83 million barrels in 2026.
The IES described the trend as a structural challenge rather than a temporary downturn, attributing the decline to a combination of ageing oil fields, inadequate exploration activity, operational disruptions and insufficient investment in the upstream petroleum sector.
According to the report, Ghana’s oil production is heavily dependent on three offshore fields — Jubilee, TEN and SGN — with no major new field entering production in more than eight years to replace declining reserves.
The report identified the absence of new Petroleum Agreements since 2018 as one of the major factors limiting future production growth, arguing that the lack of new exploration and development activities has left the country dependent on mature fields experiencing natural decline.
The IES further pointed to operational challenges, including production disruptions at the Jubilee Field, which recorded a significant decline in output in 2025 following a planned maintenance shutdown.
The analysis noted that average daily production at Jubilee fell from 90,755 barrels per day in 2024 to 60,898 barrels per day in 2025, demonstrating Ghana’s vulnerability due to its limited production base.
The decline in crude output has also affected petroleum revenues, with total petroleum receipts falling from US$1.36 billion in 2024 to US$770.27 million in 2025, representing a reduction of more than 43 percent.
The IES said the fall in revenue was driven by both lower production levels and a decline in average realised crude prices.
Beyond revenue losses, the report warned that declining oil production could affect Ghana’s electricity generation, given the importance of associated and non-associated gas from the country’s oil fields in powering thermal plants.
It cautioned that reduced domestic gas availability could increase reliance on alternative sources, including more expensive imports, thereby putting additional pressure on the power sector.
The report also raised concerns about the impact on Ghana’s energy transition plans, noting that declining petroleum revenues could weaken the country’s ability to finance renewable energy projects and other transition initiatives.
To reverse the trend, the IES recommended that government urgently restart the process of signing new Petroleum Agreements through transparent and competitive licensing rounds.
It also called for accelerated implementation of planned investments, including the proposed US$2 billion programme to drill 20 new wells in the Jubilee and TEN fields.
The organisation urged stronger monitoring of petroleum sector commitments, improved support for the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation (GNPC), enhanced governance of petroleum revenues and reforms within the gas and power sectors.
The IES welcomed government’s announced petroleum investments, including new commitments exceeding US$3.5 billion, but stressed that such initiatives must be closely monitored to ensure they translate into actual drilling activities and increased production.
The report concluded that Ghana’s declining oil output requires urgent and coordinated action, including increased investment, new exploration activities, improved operational efficiency and stronger institutional frameworks to restore growth in the upstream petroleum sector.
