Fitch Solutions has sharply revised upwards its forecast for Ghana’s current account surplus in 2026, pointing to stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year.
The research and analysis arm of Fitch Ratings now projects the surplus to reach 7.8% of GDP, significantly higher than its previous forecast of 5.2%.
The upgrade follows Ghana’s strong merchandise trade performance, with the country recording a US$4.3 billion trade surplus in the first half of 2026.
The H1 figure represents a substantial improvement compared with the average merchandise trade surplus of about US$700 million recorded during the first halves of 2016 to 2025.
Fitch Solutions attributed the stronger performance mainly to increased export earnings from gold and crude oil, which boosted Ghana’s trade receipts and strengthened its external position.
The firm said the size of the trade surplus surpassed its earlier expectations, prompting the revision to its full-year outlook.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.
The latest projection suggests a stronger external position for Ghana in 2026, supported by robust export performance.
However, Fitch Solutions expects the current account surplus to moderate in 2027, although it forecasts that Ghana will continue to record a sizeable surplus.
The revised outlook comes as Ghana’s trade performance remains a key driver of its external-sector strength, particularly through earnings from its major export commodities, gold and crude oil.
