The Ghana Meteorological Department (GMet) has warned of hotter, drier and dustier conditions across the country as a very strong El Niño weather phenomenon develops in the Pacific Ocean, raising concerns about possible impacts on water supply, agriculture, public health and disaster preparedness.
In a six-page advisory reportedly released on October 30, 2026, GMet cited data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).
According to the advisory, there is a 96 per cent probability that the developing El Niño will reach very strong intensity between November 2026 and January 2027.
It is expected to peak within the period and gradually weaken during the first half of 2027.
The forecast indicates that Ghana could experience a hotter, drier and dustier dry season from late November 2026 through March 2027.
GMet also projects below-normal rainfall across most parts of the country between October and December 2026.
However, it cautioned that sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding could still occur in parts of southern Ghana, inland Greater Accra, Central, Volta, Eastern, Bono, Savannah, North East and Upper West regions.
The advisory identifies February to April 2027 as a period of particularly high heat stress, especially in northern Ghana.
Forecast temperatures cited in the statement include 38°C for Bolgatanga, 36°C for Tamale and 34°C for Kumasi.
The anticipated conditions could increase the risk of bushfires, water shortages, pressure on crops and livestock, and dust-related health challenges.
GMet also highlighted the seasonal risk of meningitis in northern Ghana, where prolonged dry and dusty conditions could create additional public health concerns.
The outlook for the 2027 rainy season remains uncertain.
According to the advisory, a slow weakening of El Niño could result in a delayed or weaker rainy season, while the possible development of La Niña around mid-2027 could bring heavier rainfall, flooding and potential spillage from the Volta River system.
Reacting to the forecast, Emmanuel Duah, Executive Director of Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub, has called on government institutions and local authorities to take immediate preventive measures rather than wait for the effects of the weather conditions to become severe.
He argued that Ghana has a limited window to prepare for both the anticipated dry season and the possible return of heavy rains.
“Ghana’s pattern is to burn in February and drown in June.
We have a four-month window to break that cycle,” he said.
Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub has proposed seven measures covering the dry season and the subsequent rainy period.
The organisation has called for the activation of a National El Niño Task Force, as recommended by GMet, involving the Meteorological Department, National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO), Volta River Authority (VRA), Ghana Water Limited, Ministry of Food and Agriculture, Ghana Health Service and Energy Commission.
The proposed task force would undertake weekly monitoring of the Akosombo Dam’s water levels and national food buffer stocks.
On water security, Radiant Media has urged Ghana Water Limited to publish a water rationing plan early and prioritise the rehabilitation of boreholes in northern Ghana.
It has also called on the VRA to manage water retention at the Akosombo and Kpong dams to reduce the risk of emergency spillage later.
For public health protection, the organisation has proposed that the Ghana Health Service pre-position meningitis vaccines in the Upper East, Upper West, North East and Savannah regions.
It has further urged Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies to issue heat advisories, including guidance to limit outdoor activities between noon and 3:00 p.m. and protect vulnerable groups such as schoolchildren and market women.
In agriculture, Radiant Media has called on the Ministry of Food and Agriculture to provide guidance on planting schedules based on GMet’s forecasts, distribute drought-tolerant seeds and support livestock farmers with feed supplies, particularly in northern Ghana.
For the anticipated rainy period, Radiant Media has urged local authorities in major urban centres, including Accra, Kumasi, Tamale and Sekondi, to begin desilting major drains before March 2027.
The organisation specifically identified the Odaw and Korle drainage systems and called for stronger enforcement against construction on waterways to reduce flooding risks.
It has also proposed that NADMO and the VRA strengthen early-warning and emergency response arrangements by pre-positioning relief supplies, boats and life jackets in the Volta, Greater Accra, Central and Eastern regions.
The organisation further called for the VRA to provide at least 72 hours’ notice before any planned Volta River spillage, citing lessons from the 2023 flooding incidents.
On public communication, Radiant Media has recommended translating the weather advisory into 12 local languages for dissemination through radio stations.
It has also called on telecommunications companies to send SMS alerts to subscribers about extreme heat and sudden heavy rainfall.
In its concluding assessment, Radiant Media and Intelligence Hub described El Niño as a natural phenomenon but argued that the scale of its impact would depend significantly on Ghana’s preparedness.
“El Niño is natural. Disaster is man-made,” the organisation stated.
Mr Duah said GMet had provided an early warning and that the responsibility now rested on government institutions, District Assemblies and relevant agencies to translate the forecasts into practical preventive action.
He stressed that preparedness should not be limited to the Meteorological Department but should become a priority at the local government level.
The organisation warned against allowing the country to experience severe heat and drought early in the year, followed by preventable flooding when the rains return.
