Fitch Solutions is projecting that Ghana’s policy rate will fall to 16.5% by the end of 2026 as inflation continues to ease and the cedi remains relatively stable.
Speaking at the 2026 PwC Post-Budget Forum in Accra, Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, noted that the Bank of Ghana has already begun an aggressive easing phase.
He said the central bank has cut rates by 650 basis points so far, describing it as the fastest monetary easing cycle in the world this year.
Kruiniger said inflation is now within the Bank of Ghana’s target band and supported by strong foreign exchange inflows.
He added that Fitch expects a gradual reduction of the policy rate to 16.5% by late 2026, alongside a recovery in private-sector credit demand after nearly three years of weakness.
Fitch Solutions is forecasting real GDP growth of 5.9% in 2026, slightly above the 5.8% projected for 2025, driven by private consumption and a rebound in investment.
Kruiniger, however, cautioned that increasing Islamist insurgency in the Sahel poses a significant risk to Ghana’s outlook.
He warned that any spillover could affect investor confidence, public finances, and overall macroeconomic stability, potentially forcing the government to increase defence spending.
