In a press briefing on June 5th, 2024, Professor Smart Sarpong, an Associate Professor of Statistics and the Director of Research and Innovation at the Kumasi Technical University, unveiled the results of a comprehensive baseline survey conducted among 59,547 eligible voters. The survey, aimed at gauging public sentiment ahead of the 2024 general elections, revealed intriguing insights into the current political landscape in Ghana.
The findings of the polls indicate that Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential candidate, leads with 38.9% while former President John Dramani Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) follows with 36.1%. Other presidential aspirants collectively garner a modest 3.6% of the vote, with approximately 21% of voters undecided.
Dr. Bawumia leads in eight out of the sixteen regions: Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, Western, and Western North. His most notable lead is in the North East region, his home region, where he commands a significant 60% of voter support. Additionally, his commanding lead in the Ashanti and Eastern regions, traditional NPP strongholds, reinforces the NPP’s entrenched support in these areas. These regional victories underscore Bawumia’s appeal and strengthen his position in the upcoming election.
Professor Sarpong’s survey also delved into the key factors influencing voter decisions. Competence, track record, and party affiliation emerged as the top determinants, collectively accounting for 91.9% of deciding factors.
The survey results provide a snapshot of the current political climate and set the stage for what promises to be an interesting election. For Bawumia, emphasizing his track record and competence will be crucial, especially in maintaining and expanding his lead in the regions where he is currently favoured. Additionally, focusing on potential battlegrounds such as the Central and Bono regions will be essential in solidifying his chances of success in the upcoming election.
As Ghana heads towards the 2024 general elections, the baseline survey conducted by Professor Smart Sarpong provides valuable insights into voter preferences and regional dynamics. With Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia holding a lead over John Dramani Mahama, the election is poised to potentially favour Bawumia. His substantial support, particularly in key regions, suggests a promising path to victory.
